US election: Arrested Briton 'wanted to shoot Donald Trump'

A Briton who tried to grab a police officer's gun at a Donald Trump rally in Las Vegas said he wanted to shoot the US candidate, court papers say.

Michael Steven Sandford, 20, did not enter a plea when he appeared before a judge in Nevada and was remanded in custody until a hearing on 5 July.

He is charged with an act of violence "on restricted grounds".

He had reportedly tried to seize the gun after saying he was seeking Mr Trump's autograph at Saturday's rally.

He said he had been planning to try and shoot Mr Trump for about a year but had decided to act now because he finally felt confident enough to do so, court papers say.

A federal judge found Mr Sandford, who reportedly appeared in court in shackles, to be a danger and risk of non-appearance, and he was ordered detained pending his preliminary hearing.

When asked about the arrest of Michael Sandford, a Foreign Office spokesman said: "We are providing assistance following an arrest of a British national in Las Vegas."

Earlier on Monday, Mr Trump fired his campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski, who oversaw his triumph in the primary contests.

The US presidential election campaign of 2016 has been fringed with violence. Almost everywhere Donald Trump goes he attracts protests.

The tycoon often mocks the demonstrators and there have been clashes with his supporters, both inside and outside of his packed, emotionally charged rallies. For some, the violence has stirred dark memories of 1968 when Democratic presidential contender Robert Kennedy was assassinated and riots broke out at the party's convention in Chicago.

This year events have not descended to those awful depths but still, the country feels edgy and the Secret Service, which guards candidates as well as presidents, has been on high alert.

In March in Ohio agents swarmed around Mr Trump after a man apparently attempted to climb on to the stage where he was speaking. Other events have been cancelled because of security concerns. With five months to go, many Americans are worried about where this election is heading.


'Expected to be killed'

According to the court papers, Mr Sandford said he had never fired a gun before but went to a range in Las Vegas on 17 June to learn how to shoot.

At Saturday's rally at the Treasure Island Casino, he allegedly tried to grab the officer's weapon because it was in an unlocked position and therefore, he said, the easiest way to get a gun to shoot Mr Trump.

Court Documents say Mr Sandford acknowledged he knew he would only be able to fire one or two rounds, and expected to be killed during an attempt on Mr Trump's life.

He told police if he had not tried to kill Mr Trump at this rally he would have tried again at a rally in Phoenix, for which he had already booked tickets, the papers say.

He told investigators he had been in the US for one and a half years, the court papers say.

Court research showed he was unemployed, living out of his car and in the US illegally, the Associated Press news agency reports.

A federal public defender said he had autism and had attempted suicide, the agency adds.

Recent opinion polls suggest Mr Trump is trailing his Democrat opponent Hillary Clinton.

There were reports over the weekend that Mrs Clinton's campaign was ahead in spending in key swing states.

Chart of US polls

Mr Trump's former campaign manager says he still supports his candidacy, despite being sacked.

Corey Lewandowski said the billionaire businessman had changed the way American politics was viewed for the better.

Reports in American media say he clashed with the more traditional strategists Mr Trump has hired recently to try and reshape his operation for the November election.

Mr Trump is facing strong resistance from senior members of his own party over his strident tone, hard-line immigration policy and falling poll numbers.

Americans go to the polls on 8 November to elect a president to succeed Democrat Barack Obama, who is stepping down after two terms in office, which have seen the Republicans gain control of both houses of Congress.

Source: bbc.com

 

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21/Jun/2016

Italy elections: Big wins for Five Star protest party

The anti-establishment Five Star Movement has made big gains in Italy, winning mayoral races in Rome and Turin, early results show.

Virginia Raggi will become Rome's first female leader, in a victory seen as a blow to Prime Minister Matteo Renzi and his centre-left Democratic Party (PD).

PD has secured Italy's financial capital, Milan, and Bologna.

The results could give anti-globalist Five Star a platform for parliamentary elections due in 2018, observers say.

Italy local elections were held in two stages, with a first round a fortnight ago and the second round on Sunday.

Ms Raggi, a 37-year-old lawyer who was little known just a few months ago, was on course to win two-thirds of the vote, defeating the PD candidate, Roberto Giachetti.

"I will be a mayor for all Romans. I will restore legality and transparency to the city's institutions after 20 years of poor governance. With us a new era is opening," she said.

Ms Raggi will find a city mired in debts of more than €13bn (£10bn; $15bn) - twice its annual budget.

Romans are frustrated by potholes, piles of rubbish and serious deficiencies in public transport and housing, the BBC's James Reynolds reports from the Italian capital.

When in Rome shake up the politics

Italian anti-establishment 5-Star Movement (M5S) Turin mayoral candidate Chiara Appendino on 19 June

Ms Appendino has been elected Turin mayor, early results show

In Turin, another Five Star woman, Chiara Appendino, inflicted an additional blow on the Democratic Party, whose candidate had come out on top in the first round of voting two weeks ago.

Founded by comedian Beppe Grillo in 2009, Five Star has been campaigning against the corruption that has plagued Italian politics for years.

PD's Ignazio Marino resigned as mayor of Rome in October over an expenses scandal. The city has been without a mayor since then.

A much bigger scandal, involving alleged Mafia influence in Rome city hall, has fuelled Five Star's rise.

It is looking to establish itself as the main opposition party in the 2018 general election.

In Naples, Italy's third city, former prosecutor Luigi de Magistris, a centrist, was likely to win a second term.

Prime Minister Matteo Renzi during a meeting on 5 May

Prime Minister Renzi has staked his political future on an October referendum in which he wants Italians to back far-reaching constitutional reforms.

Mr Renzi's image has been affected by the struggling economy after years of austerity measures.

The plan is to end Italy's tradition of "revolving-door" governments and inject stability after years of party infighting and legislative logjams.

Source: bbc.com

 

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20/Jun/2016

Jo Cox MP death: Man charged with murder

A man has been charged with murder in connection with the shooting and stabbing of Labour MP Jo Cox.

West Yorkshire Police said Thomas Mair, 52, has been charged with the murder of the 41-year-old.

She was fatally injured outside her constituency surgery in Birstall, West Yorkshire, on Thursday.

Mr Mair will appear at Westminster Magistrates' Court later and faces a number of other charges, including grievous bodily harm.

He is further charged with possession of a firearm with intent and possession of an offensive weapon, the force said.

Speaking on Friday, temporary Chief Constable Dee Collins said a 77-year-old man remains in a stable condition in hospital after he was injured when he "bravely intervened" in an effort to help the mother of two.

Vigils were held across the country on Friday evening as members of the public and politicians came together to lay flowers, light candles and stand in silence in memory of Mrs Cox.

Vigil in George Square

Tributes to Jo Cox MP were placed on a memorial in Glasgow's George Square

David cameron and Jeremy Corbyn

David Cameron and Jeremy Corbyn laid flowers in tribute to Jo Cox in her constituency of Batley and Spen

The Prime Minister said the whole nation was "rightly shocked" at her death and called for people to "value, and see as precious, the democracy we have on these islands".

Politics is about public service and MPs want to "make the world a better place", he said.

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn described the former aid worker as "an exceptional, wonderful, very talented woman.... [who] had so much to give and so much of her life ahead of her", during a joint visit to her hometown.

Meanwhile, Downing Street has responded to a Daily Telegraph report that an unnamed female Conservative MP wrote to Mr Cameron last year raising concerns about the safety of her colleagues and attacks on her personally.

'Inadequate protection'

A statement from Number 10 said: "The Prime Minister replied to the letter and voiced deep concern about the attacks she had suffered."

It said "action was taken at the highest levels of government" in response, and the Home Secretary had met the MP and the chief constable of the MP's police force. A new security package for MPs had also been unveiled in January, it added.

Chris Bryant, Shadow Leader of the House of Commons, told BBC Newsnight he had warned Westminster authorities about "inadequate protection in their constituencies".

"I've said in terms an MP will be shot. This will happen. And the truth is we all know we can't guarantee that something like this won't happen again but we need to make sure that we've taken all the proper precautions," he said.

"I don't think the system is right to be able to deliver real security... for constituents when they come to a surgery, for staff in MPs offices, for MPs. There needs to be a regular risk assessment."

Tributes have flooded in from across the world to the "humanitarian with political nous".

President Barack Obama offered his condolences and phoned Mrs Cox's husband from Air Force One.

'Zest and energy'

A White House statement said: "The president noted that the world is a better place because of her selfless service to others and that there can be no justification for this heinous crime, which robbed a family, a community, and a nation of a dedicated wife, mother and public servant."

Canadian MP Nathan Cullen, who was a friend of Mrs Cox, broke down with emotion as he paid tribute to the late MP in Canada's House of Commons.

French Prime Minister Manuel Valls said on Twitter the killing was an attack on the democratic ideal.

The Remain and Vote Leave sides have suspended national campaigning in light of Mrs Cox's death, while the Prime Minster confirmed Parliament would be recalled on Monday. The House of Lords has also been recalled to pay tribute to Mrs Cox.

Mrs Cox is the first sitting MP to be killed since 1990 when Ian Gow was the last in a string of politicians to die at the hands of Northern Irish terror groups.

She entered Parliament as MP for Batley and Spen in last year's general election.

Labour MP Jo Cox

Jo Cox was elected as Labour MP for Batley and Spen in 2015

She was married to campaigner Brendan Cox and had two young children, with the family dividing its time between its constituency home and a river boat on the Thames.

In a statement, he said: "Jo would have no regrets about her life, she lived every day of it to the full.

"Jo believed in a better world and she fought for it every day of her life with an energy and a zest for life that would exhaust most people."

A fund set up in her memory has raised more than £218,000 for three causes which her family and friends said were close to her heart.

The charities are:

  • The Royal Voluntary Service, to support volunteers helping combat loneliness in Mrs Cox's constituency
  • HOPE not hate, who seek to challenge and defeat the politics of hate and extremism within local communities across Britain
  • The White Helmets who are volunteer search and rescue workers in Syria

Source: bbc.com

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18/Jun/2016

German minister criticises 'warmongering' Nato exercises

German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier has criticised Nato military exercises in Eastern Europe, accusing the organisation of "warmongering".

Mr Steinmeier said that extensive Nato manoeuvres launched this month were counterproductive to regional security and could enflame tensions with Russia.

He urged the Nato military alliance to replace the exercises with more dialogue and co-operation with Russia.

Nato launched a simulated Russian attack on Poland on 7 June.

The two-week-long drill involves about 31,000 troops, including 14,000 from the US, 12,000 from Poland and 1,000 from the UK.

It will also feature dozens of fighter jets and ships, along with 3,000 vehicles.

"What we shouldn't do now is inflame the situation further through sabre-rattling and warmongering," Mr Steinmeier said in an interview to be published in Germany's Bild am Sontag newspaper.

"Whoever believes that a symbolic tank parade on the alliance's eastern border will bring security, is mistaken.

"We are well-advised to not create pretexts to renew an old confrontation," he said.

The exercises are intended to test Nato's ability to respond to threats, and take place every two years.

But Russia has repeatedly said that Nato troops close to its borders are a threat to its security.

Soldiers take part in Nato military exercises in Ustka, northern Poland, on 16 June, 2016

Troops from Poland, the US, 17 other Nato member nations and from five partner nations are taking part

Source: bbc.com

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18/Jun/2016

Venezuela recall referendum: Voters told to confirm identities

Venezuela's National Electoral Council (CNE) has ruled that 1.3 million people who signed a petition for a referendum to oust President Nicolas Maduro will need to turn up at regional electoral offices to confirm their identity. Venezuela's Electoral Council President Tibisay Lucena said there were many irregularities in the petition.

Voters will have five days from 20 June to have their signatures checked.

The opposition says the CNE is working in tandem with government to slow down the process.

It blames the government for the country's serious economic crisis.

The petition was handed over to the electoral authorities on 2 May.

The opposition said it had the signatures of 1.85 million voters backing a recall referendum, many more than the 197,000 needed at this initial stage. The CNE said there were 1.97 million signatures.

Mr Maduro's government said there was widespread fraud in the process.

It said the names of thousands of dead voters and children were on the petition, which has been confirmed by CNE President Tibisay Lucena.

More than 600,000 signatures have been invalidated by the electoral bodies.

The other voters who signed the petition will need to have their identities checked between 20 and 24 June.

Opposition leader Henrique Capriles urged voters to get ready to comply with the CNE demand and go to government offices to have their identities checked later this month.

Ms Lucena warned that the process would be immediately suspended until order was restored if there was "any act of violence, trouble or aggression".

A woman holding her ID cards waits in line to sign a petition to initiate a recall referendum against Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro in San Cristobal, Venezuela, Wednesday, April 27, 2016.

For the recall referendum to be successful, almost 7.6 million people will have to vote to oust Mr Maduro

  • 1% of voters on the electoral roll have to sign a petition within 30 days to kick-start the process
  • 20% of voters (almost four million) have to sign a second petition in order to trigger the referendum
  • For the referendum to be successful, an equal or greater number of voters than those who elected Mr Maduro would have to cast their vote in favour of the recall - he won the 2013 election with 7,587,579 votes

Source: bbc.com

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11/Jun/2016

Peru election: Kuczynski wins, but Fujimori has yet to concede

With all votes counted, the economist Pedro Pablo Kuczynski appears to have won the majority of votes in Peru's cliff-hanger presidential election.

The electoral commission said he received 50.12% of votes, against 49.88% for his rival, Keiko Fujimori.

About 50,000 ballots must first be settled by an electoral court before a winner can be officially declared.

Ms Fujimori has yet to concede, but Mr Kuczynski tweeted his thanks to the Peruvian people.

"It's time to work together for the future of our country," he told his followers on Twitter

This has been the tightest fought election in Peru in five decades.

As the last few votes were counted, the candidates remained neck-and-neck, with Mr Kuczynski leading by a tiny margin.

Peruvian presidential candidate Keiko Fujimori gestures to followers in Lima, Peru, June 5, 2016.

Keiko Fujimori had led opinion polls for months

The closeness of the result came as a surprise after polls in the run-up to the election had suggested Ms Fujimori had a comfortable lead.

Analysts said corruption scandals in Ms Fujimori's Popular Force Party may have dented her support since April, when she comfortably won the first round of voting.

She is the daughter of Peru's former President, Alberto Fujimori, who is in jail for crimes against humanity.

'Promoting economic growth'

Mr Kuczynski, who is an ex-Wall Street financier, said he would use his international financial experience to promote economic growth.

He has the support of prominent figures such as Nobel-Prize-winning novelist Mario Vargas Llosa and left-wing candidate Veronika Mendoza, who came third in the first round of voting.

But he has faced scrutiny over his close relationship to Peru's business elite.

Source: bbc.com

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09/Jun/2016

Obama officially endorses Hillary Clinton

President Obama has officially endorsed Hillary Clinton as the Democratic Party presidential nominee.

His endorsement came after meeting Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders who has been battling Mrs Clinton for the nomination.

Speaking in a video tweeted out by Mrs Clinton, Mr Obama said she may be the most qualified person "ever" for the role of president.

The two are set to start campaigning together soon.

"I want those of you who've been with me from the beginning of this incredible journey to be the first to know that 'I'm with Her.' I am fired up and cannot wait to get out there and campaign for Hillary," Mr Obama said in the video.

"Secretary Clinton and Senator Sanders may have been rivals during this primary, but they're both patriots who love this country and they share a vision for the America that we all believe in."

Tweet by Hillary Clinton

The two ran against one another for the Democratic nomination in 2008 and Mr Obama later made Mrs Clinton secretary of state.

Speaking to Reuters following the endorsement, Mrs Clinton said Mr Obama's endorsement "means the world".

"It is absolutely a joy and an honour that President Obama and I, over the years, have gone from fierce competitors to true friends," she said.

Presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump tweeted that Mr Obama's endorsement means he wants "four more years of Obama" and "nobody else does".


Analysis - Anthony Zurcher, BBC News North America reporter

Barack Obama is now in the game. In a slickly produced video endorsement, the president has thrown his support behind Hillary Clinton's bid to keep the White House in Democratic hands.

Given the high production value of the video, the announcement had obviously been in the works for some time. In fact, astute observers have noted that Mr Obama is sporting the tie he wore on Tuesday.

Bernie Sanders has said he will continue to campaign in Washington DC, leading up to the capital city's primary next week - but expect most Democrats to close ranks quickly. The Vermont senator even struck a more conciliatory tone after a meeting at the White House, saying he looks forward to "working together" with the former secretary of state to defeat Donald Trump.

Mr Obama and Mrs Clinton will make their first joint appearance together in Wisconsin next week. Before that she's visiting Ohio and Pennsylvania.

The Democrats clearly view the general election battleground as the industrial Rust Belt states. And for the first time since 1998 there is a popular, scandal-free second-term incumbent president working hard on the campaign trail to preserve his legacy.

What an Obama endorsement will mean for Hillary

Source: bbc.com

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09/Jun/2016

US election 2016: Clinton hails historic moment for women

Hillary Clinton has thanked her supporters for helping her reach a historic moment for women - the Democratic nomination for president.

"Thanks to you, we've reached a milestone," she told cheering crowds at a rally in New York.

She hailed "the first time in our nation's history that a woman will be a major party's nominee".

Earlier Mrs Clinton won the Democratic primary in New Jersey, cementing her hold on her party's nomination.

The AP news agency reported on Monday that Mrs Clinton had enough delegates to qualify as the Democratic nominee.

Six states have been voting in primaries on Tuesday but the race in California will count the most.

Her rival, Bernie Sanders, is hoping for a win in the state, where polls show the race is close.

He aims to sway super delegates to support him instead of Mrs Clinton at the party's convention in July, but commentators say the Vermont Senator is unlikely to succeed in his bid for the nomination.

State graphic

"To every little girl who dreams big: Yes, you can be anything you want—even president. Tonight is for you," Mrs Clinton tweeted following her win in New Jersey.

Speaking in Brooklyn, New York, she said Republican presumptive nominee Donald Trump was "temperamentally unfit" to be president.

"My mother… taught me to never back down to a bully. Which turned out to be pretty good advice," she said.


Analysis - Anthony Zurcher, BBC News North America Reporter

In what amounted to a Democratic nomination contest victory speech, Hillary Clinton took some time to acknowledge the historic nature of her achievement. She made reference to the metaphorical glass ceiling that she has now shattered. She referenced the long struggles of the women's rights movement. And she tipped her hat to her Democratic rival, Bernie Sanders.

Then it was on to the work at hand - wrapping Donald Trump's recent controversies around his neck and pitching him into the Hudson River.

If Mrs Clinton has run a joyless primary campaign, it has been in part because she's spent much of it nurturing her built-in advantages within the Democratic Party and playing not to lose. Last week, in a foreign policy speech in San Diego, she went on the attack. And Tuesday night, she continued the broadsides. It's a role that allows her to show considerably more energy and passion.

Earlier in the evening, Mr Trump, speaking from a Teleprompter, focused almost exclusively on economic issues. Gone were references to Muslim immigration bans or border walls. Instead he made an explicit pitch to Bernie Sanders supporters and other Americans disaffected by the current state of the US political system.

It was the kind of primary night speech that will be well received by Republicans politicians who have spent the last week in a cave or a coma. The rest of the party faithful will likely be more inclined to wait and see.


While Mrs Clinton won in New Jersey, South Dakota and New Mexico, Mr Sanders found victory in the North Dakota caucuses.

Meanwhile Mr Trump won in his party's vote in New Jersey, South Dakota, New Mexico, California and Montana.

The billionaire turned his attention to the election in November in his remarks at Trump National Golf Club in Briarcliff Manor, New York.

"We're only getting started and it's gonna be beautiful," he said.

Source: bbc.com

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07/Jun/2016

Donald Trump: Illegals treated better than US veterans

Illegal immigrants in the US often get better care than the nation's military veterans, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has said.

"We're not going to allow that to happen any longer," he told a bikers' rally in Washington DC.

Mr Trump did not provide any evidence for his assertion.

Last year, the billionaire sparked anger by attacking the military record of Senator John McCain, a former prisoner of war.

Mr Trump said Sen McCain was only considered a hero because he was a prisoner of war during the Vietnam War.

He then added: "I like people who weren't captured."

Since then Mr Trump, who never served in the military, has tried to repair the damage by frequently honouring veterans at his rallies and holding fundraising events for them.

His latest comments came at the annual Rolling Thunder motorcycle rally on Sunday, which was dedicated to remembering POWs and those missing in action.

Despite previous criticism, many in the crowd cheered Mr Trump.

"What I like about Trump is that he is one of us. He's not a politician," 52-year-old Louis Naymik was quoted as saying by the Associated Press news agency.

Mr Trump - who has made controversial comments on a number of issues - was speaking ahead of the 7 June California primary.

He is running unopposed in California after his Republican rivals pulled out and he reached the number of delegates needed to secure the nomination. It has yet to be formalised.

The Associated Press says Congress and many states have written an assortment of laws and policies designed to restrict government services to people in the country illegally.

Source: bbc.com

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29/May/2016

The Democrats' election nightmare

Some Democrats have a nightmare that takes them back to Florida 16 years ago, and the time of the 'hanging chads'.

It was the presidential election decided in that state by 537 votes after weeks of counting, amid arguments over the ragged fragments of ballots not punched free in the voting machines. Those pesky chads.

The villain of the nightmare is the old consumer and green crusader Ralph Nader.

He persisted in his third party campaign through to November, impervious to Democrat accusations of selfish egocentricity, and got nearly 100,000 votes in Florida.

http://ichef-1.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/8439/production/_89794833_chadstv000169206.jpg

Election workers look over a ballot in Florida during the 2000 presidential election

With less than one per cent of votes for Nader, cast overwhelmingly by liberal-left voters, Al Gore would have won the state for the Democrats, and vote in the state-by-state electoral college.

President George W Bush would never have been.

The figure who hovers in this dream as a white-haired ghost is of course, Bernie Sanders.

Might he be the spoiler for Hillary Clinton which gives Donald Trump the White House?

'Defeat Trump by defeating Clinton'

The fear of senior Democrats is not that he makes a Nader-style independent run - it would make no sense at all - but simply that he poisons the well, and has the same effect in the end.

He's not giving up, although mathematically his chance of the nomination has gone.

He tells his huge rallies that the only way to defeat Trump is to defeat Clinton, and many of his followers believe him. I walked with a few hundred of them through San Diego.

'Feel the Bern'

They were a mixture of hardcore liberals, students, cragged hippies (wearing jeans that look as though they have seen service in '68), a man selling socialist pamphlets, and Aztec dancers who were asked to bless the march, which they did to a drumbeat that gave our microphone a few problems.

'Feel the Bern!' they cried.

It's a movement, without doubt. Fired by the spirit of the Occupy Wall Street campaign, and a belief that Hillary Clinton is the child of a rotten establishment, they sing the Sanders songs.

Hillary Clinton says race against Bernie Sanders is 'done'

US election: Sanders vows to fight on 'until the last vote is cast'

Bernie Sanders: 'We must defeat Donald Trump'

US election: What will Clinton v Trump look like?

They are happy because, exactly like the Trump army on the other side, they are an insurgency which has surprised everyone.

But it perplexes Democrats who know how tough it will be when the campaign against Trump is truly joined.

Vice-chair of the California Democrats Eric Bauman told me that on 95% of the important questions, Clinton and Sanders held views that were nearly indistinguishable.

So why fight so hard and in increasingly fractious language?

California Senator and party elder Diane Feinstein has warned that they "can't afford a disruptive convention like 1968" (when anti war protestors were tear gassed in the streets of Chicago).

She was speaking after a state convention in Nevada where there was chair throwing in the course of a row about delegate selection.

I spoke to Stephanie Miller, the liberal talk-show host and comedienne who broadcasts from her home in the Hollywood hills.

She said that Karl Rove, the master Republican strategist had not bothered to turn his attention to Sanders yet.

"Imagine what he would do to a 73-year-old socialist Jew from Vermont!" she tells me, in the midst of a passionate assault on Trump, whom she described as "a racist, bigot and misogynist" and someone who reminded her of Hitler.

'Fight goes on'

Yet Bernie soldiers on. He addresses vast rallies and he is tramping the valleys of California, scene of the last primary, in the hope of inflicting a final, embarrassing (though unlikely) defeat on Clinton, who's having to fight him with millions of dollars that she had hoped to keep for the campaign proper against Trump.

The nomination is all but locked up, but the internal party fight goes on.

Now, let's be clear that most of the Sanders voters in the primaries are bound to vote Democrat in November, whatever their feelings about candidate Clinton.

But how many won't?

And in supporting an increasingly sour Sanders attack on her, how far will they help to fuel the feelings of undecided voters who, for one reason or another stretching back 25 years, have never warmed to her?

'Honk for Bernie'

His persistence is doing her damage, and some of it will last.

Such concerns seem far away to his supporters on the streets of San Diego. They continue to ask drivers to 'Honk for Bernie.'

Some of them said cheerfully that they could never vote for her. They would stay away on 1 November.

http://ichef-1.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/10F17/production/_89799396_trumphi033120265.jpg

Donald Trump has already turned his attention to Hillary Clinton

And who knows, the polls may tighten as Republicans rally behind Trump, however reluctantly.

He's already beginning to tailor his message to try to pull in disaffected Democrats.

And if it works as it has done so far this year, some Sanders supporters will find themselves in November with walk-on parts in the Democrats' nightmare.

Source: bbc.com

 

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26/May/2016

Austria to vote in run-off between far-right and independent

The European Union could see its first far-right president if Norbert Hofer wins the second, run-off round of the Austrian election.

The Freedom Party candidate faces an independent, Alexander Van der Bellen, who has the backing of the Greens.

Mr Hofer topped the first vote but fell well short of an outright majority.

For the first time since World War Two, both the main centrist parties were knocked out in the first round, amid concerns over the migrant crisis.

Ninety-thousand people claimed asylum in Austria last year, equivalent to about 1% of the Austrian population, and the Freedom Party has run a campaign against immigration.

While the presidency is a largely ceremonial post, the president has powers to dismiss the government.


Europe will be watching: Bethany Bell, BBC News, Vienna

Austria is faced with a stark choice for its head of state: a Green Party professor, Alexander Van der Bellen, or Norbert Hofer of the far-right Freedom Party - a soft-spoken, charismatic gun enthusiast who won a decisive victory in the first round of voting in April.

For the first time since the Second World War, the traditional parties of the centre left and centre right were knocked out of the race.

Support for the Freedom Party has risen because of deep frustration with the established parties and, more recently, because of fears about the migrant crisis.

Rightwing parties are gaining strength in a number of EU countries. European leaders will be watching the result closely.

Read more from Bethany

Country profile


In the first round, Mr Hofer secured 35% of the votes, while Mr Van der Bellen, polled 21%.

At his final election rally on Friday in Vienna, Mr Hofer, 45, sought to hammer home his message that immigrants needed to integrate.

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Norbert Hofer mingled with supporters in Vienna on Friday

"Those people who respect and love Austria and have found a new home here are warmly welcome," he said to applause.

"But those, it has to be said, those who do not value our country, who fight for Islamic State, or who rape women, I say to these people: this is not your homeland. You cannot stay in Austria."

The presidents of the European Commission and the European Parliament, Jean-Claude Juncker and Martin Schulz, have both expressed concern that Mr Hofer could win.

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Alexander Van der Bellen held his last rally in Vienna

"I say to them very politely but firmly: we don't take orders from Brussels or Berlin," Mr Hofer said at the rally.

Mr Van der Bellen, 72, told his final rally in Vienna that it was likely to be a close race.

"I think it could be on a knife edge - fifty-fifty who will win, so this time, as with previous votes, but more than ever for this important election, every vote will count," he said.

At a news conference, he reflected: "As you know, I am 72 years old and I've experienced how Austria rose from the ruins of World War Two, caused by the madness of nationalism."

The two rivals had engaged in an angry TV debate earlier in the week, described as "political mud-wrestling" by commentators.

First round shock

Such was the political shock at the far right's first-round win that the Chancellor (prime minister), Werner Faymann, resigned after losing the support of his Social Democratic party colleagues.

The Social Democrats and the People's Party have governed Austria for decades, either alone or in coalition.

At the last general election in 2013, they together won just enough votes to govern in a "grand coalition".

Incumbent President Heinz Fischer, 77, could not run again after two terms in office.

Source: bbc.com

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21/May/2016

Taiwan's Tsai Ing-wen sworn in as first female president

Tsai Ing-wen has been sworn in as the new president of Taiwan, becoming its first female leader and calling for "positive dialogue" with Beijing.

Ms Tsai, seen as an unassuming but determined leader, led the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) to a landslide win in elections in January.

The DPP has traditionally leaned towards independence from China, which sees Taiwan as a breakaway province.

In the past, it has threatened to take the island by force if necessary.

It still has hundreds of missiles pointing towards the island.

Taiwan, the place to be a woman in politics

Tsai Ing-wen, Taiwan's shy but steely leader

Cats, K-pop and trolls: Tsai's strange first week

China and economy among Tsai's challenges

What's behind the China-Taiwan divide?

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Chen Chien-jen was sworn in as vice-president, in front of a portrait of Sun Yat-sen, the founder of the Republic of China

Ms Tsai, 59, swore the presidential oath in front of the national flag, before being presented with the official seal.

She and outgoing President Ma Ying-jeou then came out to wave at the crowds watching on screens outside the presidential building.

In her inaugural speech, she said Taiwanese people had shown they were "committed to the defence of our freedom and democracy as a way of life".

The "stable and peaceful development of the cross-Strait relationship must be continuously promoted", she said, calling on both sides to "set aside the baggage of history, and engage in positive dialogue, for the benefit of the people on both sides".


Speech likely to irk China: Cindy Sui, BBC News, Taipei

What Ms Tsai said in her speech is unlikely to satisfy Beijing. It sees eventual unification with the island as non-negotiable.

With tensions rising in the South China Sea, Beijing is also keen for Taiwan to be its ally rather than be aligned with rival claimants to the disputed islets in the sea.

What may also irk China is her focus on Taiwan's democracy and freedom - saying it's every Taiwanese person's responsibility to safeguard this.

This is a clear message to Beijing that Taiwanese people cherish these characteristics of their society and their self-rule more than economic ties with China, even if the mainland is the island's biggest trade partner and export market.

Democracy and freedom to Beijing mean pro-independence, so China will likely continue to distrust Ms Tsai.

Ms Tsai's election win was only the second ever for the DPP - the Kuomintang (KMT) has been in power for most of the past 70 years.

But Mr Ma lost public support over his handling of the economy, the widening wealth gap, as well as what many say was too friendly an approach to Beijing.

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Ms Tsai and her predecessor Ma Ying-jeou then came out together to greet the public

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A military parade and a display of Taiwanese history are being held in the capital in celebration

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The event involves thousands of military personnel as well as schoolchildren and artistic performances

Source: bbc.com

 

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20/May/2016

9/11 bill passes US Senate despite Saudi 'warning'

A bill that would allow the families of 9/11 victims to sue the Saudi government has passed a key hurdle in the US Senate.

The Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act (JASTA) now moves to the House of Representatives.

Saudi Arabia's foreign minister warned that the move could cause his government to withdraw US investments.

President Barack Obama said he will veto the bill, but a Democratic senator is "confident" he'd be overruled.

If it became law the legislation would allow victims' families to sue any member of the government of Saudi Arabia thought to have played a role in any element of the attack.

Saudi Arabia denies any involvement in the 2001 attack on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, which killed nearly 3,000 people.

Fifteen out of the nineteen hijackers in 2001 were Saudi citizens.

In 2004 the 9/11 Commission Report found "no evidence that the Saudi government as an institution or senior Saudi officials individually funded the organisation".

A White House spokesman said President Obama had serious concerns about the bill, and it was difficult to imagine he would sign it into law.

It was sponsored by Democrat Senator Chuck Schumer of New York and Republican Senator John Cornyn of Texas and is expected to be passed by the House of Representatives as well.


Analysis - Barbara Plett Usher, BBC News, Washington

The 9/11 bill puts Congress on a collision course with the Obama administration, which has lobbied intensely against it.

The White House argues the legislation would remove the sovereign immunity that prevents lawsuits against governments, and could expose Americans to a legal backlash overseas.

For Congress, however, this is about fighting terrorism and pursuing justice for victims, and there is unusual bipartisan support for the bill. Some of its most outspoken supporters are Democrats who are confident that Congress has the necessary two-thirds vote to override a presidential veto.

There is no evidence to support claims that Saudi officials provided financial support to the hijackers, although some believe a classified section of the report into the 9/11 attacks might show otherwise.

But Congress is also playing to the strong emotions triggered by this dispute - the relative of a victim recently told the New York Times it was "stunning" to think the government would back the Saudis over its citizens. One suspects many Americans might agree.


Senator Schumer said: "Today the Senate has spoken loudly and unanimously that the families of the victims of terror attacks should be able to hold the perpetrators even if it's a country a nation accountable.

"It will serve as a deterrent and warning to any other nation who assists in terror attacks against American."

He said he was confident the bill would be passed by a large margin in the Republican-controlled House of Representatives.

On Tuesday, Saudi Arabia denied it had threatened to sell its US bonds, which would pull billions of dollars from the US economy.

"We said that a law like this is going to cause investor confidence to shrink," Foreign Minister Ahmed Al-Jubeir said while attending a conference in Geneva. "Not just for Saudi Arabia, but for everybody".

Last year an inmate in US custody, Zacarias Moussaoui, claimed that a Saudi prince had helped finance the attack that flew passenger planes into the World Trade Center in New York and the Pentagon in Virginia.

A fourth plane crashed into an empty field in western Pennsylvania.

Saudi Arabia had rejected the accusation from a "deranged criminal" with no credibility.

Source: bbc.com

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17/May/2016

Four more ways the CIA has meddled in Africa

The US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has a long history of involvement in African affairs, so Sunday's reports that the 1962 arrest of Nelson Mandela came following a CIA tip-off don't come as a huge surprise. Nelson Mandela was imprisoned in 1962 and later convicted of trying to violently overthrow the government.

Most incidents came during the Cold War, when the US and the Soviet Union battled for influence across the continent.

CIA covert operations are by their very nature hard to prove definitively. But research into the agency's work, as well as revelations by former CIA employees, has thrown up several cases where the agency tried to influence events.

Here are four examples:


1) 1961 - Patrice Lumumba's assassination in Congo

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Patrice Lumumba became the first prime minister of the newly-independent Congo in 1960, but he lasted just a few months in the job before he was overthrown and assassinated in January 1961.

In 2002, former colonial power Belgium admitted responsibility for its role in the killing, however, the US has never explained its role despite long-held suspicions.

US President Dwight D Eisenhower, concerned about communism, was worried about Congo following a similar path to Cuba.

According to a source quoted in Death in the Congo, a book about the assassination, President Eisenhower gave "an order for the assassination of Lumumba. There was no discussion; the [National Security Council] meeting simply moved on".

However, a CIA plan to lace Lumumba's toothpaste with poison was never carried out, Lawrence Devlin, who was a station chief in Congo at the time, told the BBC in 2000.

A survey of declassified US government documents from the era notes that the CIA "initially focussed on removing Lumumba, not only through assassination if necessary but also with an array of non-lethal undertakings".

While there is no doubt the CIA wanted him dead, the survey does not indicate direct US involvement in his eventual killing.


2) 1965 - Overthrow of Kwame Nkrumah in Ghana

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Ghana's first President Kwame Nkrumah was overthrown in a military coup in 1966 while he was out of the country.

He later suspected that the US had a role in his downfall and in a 1978 book, former CIA intelligence officer John Stockwell backed this theory up.

In In Search of Enemies he writes that an official sanction for the coup does not appear in CIA documents, but he writes "the Accra station was nevertheless encouraged by headquarters to maintain contact with dissidents.

"It was given a generous budget, and maintained intimate contact with the plotters as a coup was hatched."

He says that the CIA in Ghana got more involved and its operatives were given "unofficial credit for the eventual coup".

A declassified US government document does show awareness of a plot to overthrow the president, but does not indicate any official backing.

Another declassified document written after the coup describes Nkrumah's fall as a "fortuitous windfall. Nkrumah was doing more to undermine our interests than any other black African".


3) 1970s - Opposition to the MPLA in Angola

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In Angola three competing groups fought for control after independence from Portugal in 1975, with the MPLA under Agostinho Neto taking over the capital Luanda.

Mr Stockwell, chief of CIA's covert operations in Angola in 1975, writes that Washington decided to oppose the MPLA, as it was seen as closer to the Soviet Union, and support the FNLA and Unita instead, even though all three had help from communist countries.

The CIA then helped secretly import weapons, including 30,000 rifles, through Kinshasa in neighbouring Zaire, now known as the Democratic Republic of Congo, Mr Stockwell says in a video documentary.

He adds that CIA officers also trained fighters for armed combat.

A declassified US government document detailing a discussion between the head of the CIA, the secretary of state and others indicates the support the CIA gave to the forces fighting the MPLA.

The US continued to support Unita through much of the civil war as Cuba was backing the MPLA.


4) 1982 - Supporting Hissene Habre in Chad

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Hissene Habre failed in his attempt to take power by force in Chad in 1980.

But his efforts led President Goukouni Oueddei to call on help from the Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, whose soldiers successfully beat back Habre's challenge and forced him into exile.

A proposed alliance between Libya and Chad began to unsettle the US especially as Gaddafi began to be seen as a supporter of anti-US activities.

In Foreign Policy magazine Michael Bronner writes that the CIA director, with the secretary of state, "coalesced around the idea of launching a covert war in partnership with Habre".

It is alleged that the US then backed Habre's overthrow of the president in 1982 and then supported him throughout his brutal rule.

Source: bbc.com

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17/May/2016

Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton vie for Kentucky and Oregon

Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders is hoping to keep his campaign alive with strong showings in the Kentucky and Oregon primaries.

Front-runner Hillary Clinton is almost certain to secure the nomination in July, with a significant delegate lead.

She has been campaigning in Kentucky, saying husband and former President Bill Clinton would take charge of revitalising the economy.

Both races could be fairly competitive, national polls predict.

Mrs Clinton has won 94% of delegates needed to win the nomination, a total of 24 states to Mr Sanders' 19.

Republicans will vote in Oregon on Tuesday, but that race is all but decided, with front-runner Donald Trump having pushed out all of his competitors.

The Kentucky Democratic primary will award 60 delegates to go to the party's convention in Philadelphia while Oregon's primary will award 74.

Kentucky's primary is closed, meaning only registered Democratic voters can participate.

In Oregon, voters cast ballots entirely by mail.

Pressure is rising on Mr Sanders, a senator from Vermont who has historically been an independent, not a Democrat, to drop out of the race.

Some Democrats worry that his presence is hurting their chances of beating Mr Trump, a billionaire businessman with no political experience, in the general election in the autumn.

Mr Sanders recently won primaries in Indiana and West Virginia, but that did not help him cut into Mrs Clinton's delegate lead.

"I don't think they think of the downside of this," said Senator Dianne Feinstein, who supports Mrs Clinton.

"It's actually harmful because she can't make that general election pivot the way she should. Trump has made that pivot."

Vice President Joe Biden has said he is confident Mrs Clinton will be the nominee.

Mr Sanders has argued that he still has a path to the Democratic nomination.

On the Republican side, Mr Trump is slowly gaining support among the GOP establishment.

He met House Speaker Paul Ryan last week and the two had a "productive" conversation but Mr Ryan has yet to formally support him.

Mr Trump is only 103 delegates short of the 1,237 needed to clinch the Republican nomination and Mrs Clinton is 143 short of the 2,383 Democratic delegates she needs.

Source: bbc.com

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17/May/2016

Hezbollah killing: Thousands mourn Badreddine at Beirut funeral

Thousands of people have attended the funeral in Lebanon's capital, Beirut, of top Hezbollah military commander Mustafa Amine Badreddine.

He died in an explosion near Damascus airport, the Lebanon-based group said, adding it would announce "within hours" its report into the killing.

Hezbollah has sent thousands of troops to support Syria's President Assad.

In 2015, the US said that Badreddine was behind all Hezbollah's military operations in Syria since 2011.

He was also charged with leading the assassination of former Lebanese PM Rafik Hariri in Beirut in 2005.

Obituary: Mustafa Badreddine

Profile: Lebanon's Hezbollah

Who stands accused of Hariri killing?

Images from the funeral showed the coffin being carried among a mass of supporters in the southern suburbs of Beirut, some of them chanting "Death to America" and Shia slogans.

The BBC's Quentin Sommerville, in the capital, says some at the funeral blamed Israel for the killing, with one mourner saying: "Hezbollah has many spies."

Another said that without Badreddine, "Daesh [another name for so-called Islamic State] would be here".


A thousand conspiracy theories: Quentin Sommerville, BBC News, Beirut

The crowd at the funeral pointed the finger at the usual suspect. Who carried out the attack, I asked three young women in black abayas: "Israel!" they replied in unison.

But the circumstances around Mustafa Badreddine's death are unclear, and have already sparked a thousand conspiracy theories.

It appears he was the militant group's top commander in Syria. Hezbollah is already stretched thin there, more than 1,600 of its fighters have been killed, and the pictures of its fresh "martyrs" increasingly show very young, or older men, rather than fighters in their prime. The group has promised to retaliate, but that will be difficult. It is already preoccupied in Syria.

And despite a pledge to avenge the death of its previous military commander, Imad Mughniyeh, killed in Damascus in 2008, it failed to do so. Mughniyeh was Badreddine's brother-in-law, the two men are now buried side by side in the same cemetery in Beirut's southern suburbs.


What do we know of the killing?

An initial report by Lebanon's al-Mayadeen TV said that Badreddine, 55, had died in an Israeli air strike. But a later statement by Hezbollah on al-Manar's website did not mention Israel.

Israel's government traditionally refuses to comment on such deaths and has done so again.

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Hezbollah deputy leader Sheikh Naim Qassem spoke at the funeral, flanked on his right by leader Hassan Nasrallah

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Hezbollah says it will soon report on who it believed killed Badreddine

But Israel has been accused by Hezbollah of killing a number of its fighters in Syria since the conflict began.

The group was established in the wake of the Israeli occupation of Lebanon in the early 1980s, and has called for the "obliteration" of Israel.

Asked who might have carried out the attack, Hezbollah deputy leader Sheikh Naim Qassem said that, within hours "we will announce in detail the cause of the explosion and the party responsible for it", adding there were clear indications of those responsible.

One Hezbollah MP in Lebanon, Nawar al-Saheli, said: "This is an open war and we should not pre-empt the investigation but certainly Israel is behind this. The resistance will carry out its duties at the appropriate time."

Yaakov Amidror, a former national security adviser to Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu said: "We don't know if Israel is responsible for this. Remember that those operating in Syria today have a lot of haters without Israel.

"But from Israel's view, the more people with experience, like Badreddine, who disappear from the wanted list, the better."

However, any of the armed groups seeking to overthrow President Bashar al-Assad might have have sought to kill the man co-ordinating Hezbollah military activities.

What is Badreddine's background?

Born in 1961, Badreddine is believed to have been a senior figure in Hezbollah's military wing. He was a cousin and brother-in-law of Imad Mughniyeh, who was the military wing's chief until his assassination by car bomb in Damascus in 2008.

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Badreddine was on a US sanctions list

According to one report, a Hezbollah member interrogated by the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS), described Badreddine as "more dangerous" than Mughniyeh, who was "his teacher in terrorism".

They are alleged to have worked together on the October 1983 bombing of the US Marine Corps barracks in Beirut that killed 241 personnel.

Badreddine is reported to have sat on Hezbollah's Shura Council and served as an adviser to the group's overall leader Hassan Nasrallah.

An indictment from the ongoing Special Tribunal for Lebanon in The Hague details Badreddine's role in bombings in Kuwait in 1983, that targeted the French and US embassies and other facilities, and killed six people.

He was sentenced to death over the attacks, but later escaped from prison.

Was he involved in the killing of Hariri?

Badreddine was tried in absentia by the Hague tribunal over the killing of Rafik Hariri.

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Former Lebanese PM Rafik Hariri was killed in a huge explosion in Beirut in February 2005

He was indicted on four charges and was said by the tribunal to be "the overall controller of the operation" to kill Mr Hariri.

Three other Hezbollah members also stand accused of their role in the assassination.

One mourner at the funeral asked about Badreddine's involvement said simply "lies".

What is Hezbollah doing in Syria?

The Lebanese Shia Islamist movement has played a major role in helping Iran, its main military and financial backer, to prop up the government of President Assad since the uprising erupted in 2011.

Thousands of Hezbollah fighters are assisting government forces on battlefields across Syria, particularly those near the Lebanese border, and hundreds are believed to have been killed.

 Source: bbc.com

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13/May/2016

US election: Trump and Ryan 'totally committed' to party unity

Donald Trump and House Speaker Paul Ryan have said they are "totally committed" to party unity in a statement following their meeting.

The two are trying to find common ground after Mr Ryan said he could not endorse the presumptive Republican nominee.

He has said the businessman lacked conservative principles.

"We had a great conversation this morning," the two wrote in a joint statement.

"While we were honest about our few differences, we recognise that there are also many important areas of common ground."

They said they would be having "additional discussions" but think they can unify the party and win the election.

At a press conference following the meeting, Mr Ryan said he was "very encouraged" by what he heard from Mr Trump.

Trump v Paul Ryan - the split explained

How Trump captures the White House

Trump softens stance on Muslim ban

Mr Trump arrived for the meeting at the Republican National Committee (RNC) headquarters in Washington amid protesters brandishing placards.


Analysis - Anthony Zurcher, BBC News, Washington

Paul Ryan sounds like a man trying to make peace with his shotgun marriage. Sure, the circumstances are unfortunate, but maybe life together won't be that bad.

The House speaker, who once condemned Trump's proposed Muslim ban as "not conservatism", now says there are "core principles" of conservatism that tie them together. They both love the Constitution, it seems, and they're all about the separation of powers between the branches of government.

Beyond that? Who knows. Mr Ryan declined to go into details during his Thursday press conference, instead talking about the processes being started, seeds being planted and differences being bridged.

It was not the endorsement, full-throated or otherwise, that Mr Trump desires, but it was a first step toward the reconciliation of a party that desperately wants to win back the White House in November.

If Mr Ryan eventually makes peace with what he called a "whole new wing" of the Republican Party that Mr Trump represents, this desire for power - for a prize that has been denied Republicans for two straight presidential elections - will be the driving force behind it.


Afterwards, RNC chairman Reince Priebus, who mediated the talks in his office, said it was a success.

Reince Priebus tweet

In December 2015, Mr Ryan harshly criticised Mr Trump's proposal to ban Muslims from entering the US.

He said it was "not what this party stands for and more importantly it's not what this country stands for".

But on Wednesday, Mr Trump appeared to soften, saying it was "just a suggestion".

Mr Ryan, who ran as 2012 Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney's vice president, clashes with Mr Trump on many issues, including religious freedom and trade.

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Mr Trump has said he would be fine without Mr Ryan's support

He has remained popular on Capitol Hill, after being urged to take over as Speaker of the House of Representatives in the autumn.

Many who view him as a more electable figure than Mr Trump have urged him - in vain - to run for president.

But more Republicans are throwing their support behind Mr Trump, including Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.

The New Yorker is one of the least politically experienced nominees in US history, having never held elected office.

That outsider status has appealed to voters who feel let down by Washington.

A recent Gallup Poll shows that two in three Republican-leaning voters view Mr Trump favourably.

But protests have plagued his campaign, with particular focus on his plan to build a wall on the Mexican border and deport 11 million undocumented immigrants.


Top Republicans divided over Trump

Supporting:

  • New Hampshire Senator Kelly Ayotte
  • Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson
  • New Jersey Governor Chris Christie
  • Former Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal
  • Senator Majority Leader Mitch McConnell
  • Nevada Governor Brian Sandoval
  • Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker
  • Former Texas Governor Rick Perry
  • Florida Senator Marco Rubio

Not supporting:

  • House Speaker Paul Ryan
  • Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush
  • Former President George H W Bush
  • Former President George W Bush
  • Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney
  • Nebraska Senator Ben Sasse

Yet to comment:

  • Texas Senator Ted Cruz
  • Ohio Governor John Kasich

Source: bbc.com

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12/May/2016

How Donald Trump captures the White House

In the week since Donald Trump effectively secured the Republican presidential nomination, a great deal of ink and airtime have been devoted to explaining why he will have a difficult time winning the presidency in the autumn.

The Republican Party is too badly divided. His rhetoric is too incendiary. Republican voters may be "idiots", but the general public is wiser. The US electoral map, which places a premium on winning key high-population "swing" states, is tilted against the Republican Party.

About that last point. On Tuesday a survey of three key swing states - Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania - revealed a virtual dead heat between the two likely standard-bearers.

Those states - which account for 67 electoral votes - all went for Democrat Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. Add them to the states Republican Mitt Romney carried in 2012, and it delivers 273 electoral votes - three more than the 270 necessary to win the presidency.

Throw in a national tracking poll released on Wednesday that has Donald Trump surging to within striking distance of Hillary Clinton, and it's a recipe for acute hyperventilation on the part of Democrats.

But… but… but… cooler-heads respond.

The Reuters/Ipsos national poll, which has Mrs Clinton ahead 41% to Mr Trump's 40% and 19% undecided, was conducted online.

That Quinnipiac swing-state poll oversampled white voters - a demographic group that is more inclined to Republicans. In addition, it doesn't represent that big a shift from the group's battleground-state poll from last autumn, which undermines the theory that Mr Trump's support is growing.

The news caused election guru Nate Silver to go on a Twitter tirade, asserting that it's way too early to start gaming out the state-by-state electoral map based on opinion polls.

"The election will go through a lot of twists and turns, and polls are noisy," he writes. "Don't sweat individual polls or short-term fluctuations."

Sweating polls is what US pundits and commentators do, however. And at the very least, signs that Mr Trump is within reach of Mrs Clinton should cast doubts on the early predictions that the Democrats will win in the autumn by historic, Goldwater-esque margins. Mr Trump has a pathway to the presidency.

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Several recent polls show Hillary Clinton may be in for a tight general election race against Donald Trump

He may not get there. It is not the most likely outcome. But it's real.

That linchpin of a Trump victory centres on the so-called Rust Belt - states like the aforementioned Pennsylvania and Ohio, as well as Michigan and Wisconsin. Even if Florida, due to its rapidly growing Hispanic population, goes to Mrs Clinton, Mr Trump could still win if he sweeps those states.

It's a strategy that Mr Trump already appears to understand.

"We'll win places that a lot of people say you're not going to win, that as a Republican you can't win," Mr Trump said at an April rally in Indiana. "Michigan is a great example; nobody else will go to Michigan. We're going to be encamped in Michigan because I think I can win it."

The challenge for Mr Trump is that the mid-west, particularly, Wisconsin and Michigan, have served as a Democratic firewall that Republicans have been unable to penetrate since 1988.

"These states constantly intrigue Republican presidential strategists because the Democratic advantage in them depends largely on an act of political levitation: the ability to consistently win a slightly greater share of working-class white voters here than almost anywhere else," writes the Atlantic's Ronald Brownstein.

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Disaffected white voters could be the key to unlocking the mid-west for Mr Trump

If Mr Trump is to find success, then, he likely will have to finally win over this stubborn portion of the mid-western electorate or, perhaps, energise what Sean Trende of RealClear Politics has called the "missing white voters".

Trende points to a national drop-off more than 3.5 million white voters from the elections of 2008 to 2012, when population growth should have resulted in an increase of 1.5 million.

These voters, he theorised, were largely working-class whites who had previously supported iconoclasts like Ross Perot, the 1992 anti-free-trade independent candidate.

It's the type of voter that Mr Trump, with his populist economic pitch, has been turning out in the Republican primaries.

In 2012 Mr Obama beat Mr Romney by roughly 5 million votes. If Mr Trump can bring those disaffected white voters back to the polls in 2016, it would cut into that margin. If Mrs Clinton is unable to produce the record-setting turnout among young and minority voters that Mr Obama achieved, the gap shrinks further still.

That's a lot of "if's", of course. Young and minority voters - particularly Hispanics - may yet turn out to the polls in high numbers, if only to cast ballots against Mr Trump. There are already indications of record-setting Hispanic voter registration in places like California.

There's also the risk that Mr Trump's reliance on populist rhetoric and controversial views on immigration could lead white-collar voters to favour Mrs Clinton. For every disaffected member of the working-class he brings in, he could lose a suburban mum or college-educated businessman.

Even giving Mr Trump the benefit of the doubt, and viewing the recent polls as a trend and not a blip, there are still more electoral scenarios that end up with Mrs Clinton in the White House come 2017.

For Mr Trump, the political stars have to re-align in his favour. For Mrs Clinton, a general-election status quo likely means victory.

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Mr Trump could win the presidency if he takes key states in the industrial mid-west

Source: bbc.com

 

 

 

 

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12/May/2016

Brazil impeachment: New leader Temer calls for trust

Brazil's new interim President Michel Temer has addressed the nation after the Senate voted to back the impeachment trial of Dilma Rousseff.

"Trust in the values of our people and in our ability to rebuild the economy," Mr Temer said.

He has named a business-friendly cabinet that includes respected former central bank chief Henrique Meirelles as finance minster.

Ms Rousseff denounced her removal as a "farce" and "sabotage".

Mr Temer was the leftist Ms Rousseff's vice-president before withdrawing his party's support in March. She has accused him of involvement in a "coup".

After Wednesday's all-night session that lasted more than 20 hours, senators voted by 55 votes to 22 to suspend her and put her on trial for budgetary violations.

In her final speech on Thursday afternoon, she again denied the allegations and vowed to fight what she called an "injustice" by all legal means.

Mr Temer, 75, has now taken over as president for up to 180 days - the maximum time allowed for the impeachment trial of Ms Rousseff, 68.

He said: "It is urgent to restore peace and unite Brazil. We must form a government that will save the nation."

Stressing that "economic vitality" was his key task, he added: "It is essential to rebuild the credibility of the country at home and abroad to attract new investments and get the economy growing again."

But he also said Brazil was still a poor nation and that he would protect and expand social programmes.

"Let's stop talking about crisis. Let's work instead," he said.


Who is stand-in President Michel Temer?

Michel Temer became interim president as soon as Ms Rousseff was suspended.

  • The 75-year-old law professor of Lebanese origin was Ms Rousseff's vice-president and was a key figure in the recent upheaval
  • Up until now, he's been the kingmaker, but never the king, having helped form coalitions with every president in the past two decades
  • He is president of Brazil's largest party, the PMDB, which abandoned the coalition in March
  • In recent months, his role has become even more influential; in a WhatsApp recording leaked in April, he outlined how Brazil needed a "government to save the country".

Michel Temer also said he would support the sweeping investigation into corruption at state oil company Petrobras that has embroiled many politicians and officials.

Mr Temer has nominated a 22-strong cabinet.

There are no women, although two more names are expected to be added to the cabinet. Ms Rousseff had earlier suggested that sexism in the male-dominated Congress had played a key part in the impeachment process.

Mr Meirelles, the new finance minister, built a reputation for calming nerves in the markets when heading the central bank, and helped tame inflation to create one of the country's biggest economic booms.

But analysts say Mr Temer's popularity ratings are as bad as Ms Rousseff's and he faces many challenges.

During the overnight debate, Senator Jose Serra, who has been named the new foreign minister, said the impeachment process was "a bitter though necessary medicine".

"Having the Rousseff government continue would be a bigger tragedy," he said.

Brazil is suffering from its worst recession in 10 years, unemployment reached 9% in 2015 and inflation is at a 12-year high.

'Fraudulent'

In her TV speech, flanked by ministers at the presidential palace, Ms Rousseff said that she may have made mistakes but had committed no crimes, adding: "I did not violate budgetary laws."

She said: "What is at stake is respect for the ballot box, the sovereign will of the Brazilian people and the constitution."

Branding the process "fraudulent" and saying her government was "undergoing sabotage", she vowed to fight the charges against her and said she was confident she would be found innocent.

Her removal ends 13 years of leftist rule.


What happens next?

The 180 days allocated for the trial to take place expire on 8 November.

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Source: bbc.com

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12/May/2016

India Hindu group prays for Donald Trump win

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has gained some unlikely fans - including a right-wing Hindu group in India.

Members of the Hindu Sena held a prayer in support of Mr Trump winning the US presidential election.

The little-known group said they supported Mr Trump "because he is hope for humanity against Islamic terror".

Mr Trump has proposed a ban on Muslims entering the US - drawing widespread criticism at home and abroad.

He has also advocated killing the families of terrorists and invading Syria to eradicate the so-called Islamic State group and appropriate its oil.

Around a dozen members of Hindu Sena lit a ritual fire and prayers in a park in Delhi on Wednesday, and hung a banner declaring their support for Mr Trump.

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Surrounded by statues of Hindu gods, they threw offerings such as seeds, grass and ghee (clarified butter) into a small ritual fire.

"Only Donald Trump can save humanity," Vishnu Gupta, founder of the group, told the Associated Press news agency.

He also told The Indian Express newspaper that the group had planned "several events to express its wholehearted support for Mr Trump".

The nationalist group has previously been known for vandalism and assault, attacking the office of a political party in 2014, and spraying a legislator who protested against a ban on eating beef.

Source: bbc.com

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12/May/2016